A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
